MCF Insights: Should You Lose Sleep Over the Yield Curve
IS THE FLATTENING YIELD CURVE TELLING US A RECESSION IS AROUND THE CORNER? Suddenly everyone is talking about the yield curve: Barron’s, Bloomberg, CNBC and The Wall Street Journal. Given all the attention it has gotten in recent months, most everyone seems to know that the bond market’s yield curve is dangerously close to inverting, an event that has reliably predicted U.S. recessions in the past. The recent firming of economic growth, however, is a reminder that the shrinking difference between short- and long-term Treasury yields by itself does not indicate economic weakness ahead.